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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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